Who's Asking?

Who's Asking about Competitive Analytics? In reverse order of job importance:

• Gamblers
• Ownership/Front-office personnel
• Coaches
• Players
• Fans

"Any gambler who's not using analytics to evaluate their bets should be terminated on the spot."

The entire basis of the job:

• With what probability do we predict that team A will win this game?
• … given that they're leading by one goal after two periods?

If you're putting a dollar value on something, you should be using math to get it.

• How much of an upgrade would player A be over player B?
• How much development time does player C need in junior/Europe/AHL?
• What kind of production should we expect from a 3rd overall draft pick, vs. a 10th? 20th? 200th?

Game-to-game tactical decisions and deployment issues – how do you increase the probability of wins?

Long-term:

• Do we spend practice time working on carry-ins or dump-and-chase?
• Do we practice 4-forward power plays or 3-forward?
• When should the pre-game meal be served?

In-game tactics:

• When should the goaltender be pulled for an extra attacker?
• In which games should the backup goaltender get the start?
• Which players have "synergy" and should play together?
• Will a line-up shuffle after 2 periods help or hurt?

Improving a player's skill set in the long term. (The job for coaches, too…)

• Should a player pass or shoot in (said situation)?
• Should a player sign a discounted long-term contract or go to free agency?

Who Would Win In A Fight?

Kirk or Picard?